Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
