Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
